On May 23rd, HSBC's purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 49.6 in May, the first time since October that it broke through the 50-year line of economic expansion and contraction.Weak domestic demand, which failed to compensate for weak overseas demand, was seen as the main cause of the fall.And that means China's brief recovery from the end of last year has ended, according to the chief economist of AMP capital investment.However, he believes that only if the PMI falls below 40 can the Chinese economy decline, "and that is far from us."But for the domestic equipment industry, even the current downturn is fast falling short.
How long will the economic adjustment continue
Market depression and the blurring of prospects tend to elicit negative emotions.Unfortunately, this sentiment seems to be thick with the industry.
Expectations for a cyclical industry rebound have been delayed since the second half of 2011.From the second quarter of 2011 cyclical industry, engineering machinery, heavy truck, heavy machinery sales decline began, both in industry and securities class, have been waiting for the government to issue new stimulus, starting with forecast will bottom out at the end of 2011, but in fact didn't meet expectations, then the recovery is expected to push back a quarter of a quarter, and the result is more and more pessimistic.Heavy passenger car sales continue to fall into 2012, excavators, cranes, loaders data from bad to worse, machine tool industry orders have fallen sharply, even appeared the energy demand fell for the first time, the coal is slowing growth of investment in fixed assets.In 2012, the hope for the second half of the second half of the year was dashed again, and companies felt that the demand for equipment in the economic chains was shrinking and profitability was falling rapidly, and the economy actually entered a downward path.
When the traditional growth pattern due to the collection function of a variety of reasons gradually lose efficiency, a new mode of growth and difficult to form, for lack of requirements to support enterprises feel the pain and the entire economic operation of laboring is naturally.
Looking around the industry, excess capacity of ships, excess capacity of photovoltaic capacity, excess capacity of wind power, excess capacity of cement, excess capacity of steel, overcapacity of heavy machinery, excess capacity of mining machinery...
Overcapacity has been a persistent problem in China's industrial development in recent years.More than a decade ago, China has also seen overcapacity, but the more is cyclical, when the cycle bottom does present low capacity utilization problem, but as a result of long-term potential growth did not downward, even higher capacity utilization as the economic recovery and rebound strongly easily.But, as things stand, it is clear that the economy will not be able to eliminate excess capacity automatically by prolonged economic downturns.Moreover, China's current overcapacity is not a phenomenon of the single economic cycle.
The excess capacity of the main reason should be attributed to the government-led investment mode, performance in the ability of government intervention in investment and economic growth is strong, the local because of the excessive pursuit of GDP index and form excessive investment, expand production capacity to, make the market lost its role in optimal allocation of resource.In particular, in 2009 and 2010, the "4 trillion" investment stimulus, the market demand is active, make the enterprise profit improve.As a result, investment in fixed assets of enterprises has increased;From 2011 to 2012, it was the peak period of production capacity release in the early stage of the industry. However, as the market demand was going down season by season, the problem of overcapacity became more prominent.
It should be said that overcapacity will be one of the biggest challenges to the new government's macro-control in the next five years.After all, the investment impulse at the enterprise level, especially the expansion of capacity, has always been accompanied by the investment in the macro economy.That is to say, if the development of the equipment manufacturing industry is to be effectively solved, the development of the equipment manufacturing industry should focus on the connotation transformation, and the macro level will need to be adjusted to the development cognition in the first place.
At present, the market environment faced by the Chinese industry is that the developed countries preempt the high-end manufacturing sector, and the emerging countries undertake the transfer of low-end manufacturing industries.The low-cost advantage of "made in China" has been eroded, while the new competitive advantage has been hard to grow.If we do not change, I am afraid the Chinese industry will have more trouble.
Around the globe, the third industrial revolution the horns have sounded and the European Union, the United States, Japan's economy is the problem, but are actively preparing for a new round of industrial revolution, the new energy, a new round of competition, intelligent, automation direction to front end technology, so as to grasp the initiative in the future.Is China's equipment manufacturing a good place to be in a new round of industrial revolution, or will it remain Mired in overcapacity?Is it to seize the moment of change, make a leap forward, or continue to enjoy the low end of the industrial chain?This is not just a matter of choice for business.
As for when the depth of the global economy will come to an end, though the views are different, it is believed that only "god" will know.One thing is certain, though, that the process of the financial crisis will undoubtedly profoundly change the future of the world.The third industrial revolution is not just a concept
It has been said that today in globalization, the financial crisis has changed the world as much as the war in human history.
Unlike the economic boom, the economic crisis is more prone to social contradictions and unrest.Thus, boosting the economy is a strong demand for countries in Europe and the United States.And when traditional industries and markets become increasingly saturated, the idea of new alternative industries to create new demand and change the traditional way of life is vivid and seductive.Thus, the idea of the third industrial revolution came into being.
The concept of the third industrial revolution is broadly based on two versions: first, the concept of the "third industrial revolution" proposed by Paul mackey, editor of the economist magazine.He believed that the "first industrial revolution" was in Britain in the late 18th century, when the textile factory machine production took the place of the workshop by hand and began the "first industrial revolution".In the early 20th century, the second industrial revolution ushered in the era of mass production.The third industrial revolution will usher in the digital development of manufacturing industry.The second is Jeremy rifkin, author of the third industrial revolution -- how the new economic model changed the world.He believed that the industrial revolution in history was a combination of communication technology and energy technology, which led to significant economic transformation.The combination of Internet technology and renewable energy will lead to the third industrial revolution in the world.
Due to the above view accorded with the current global economic crisis, energy shortage, climate change, the real economy in the developed countries shrinking practical problems, such as still got a lot of people even part of the decision makers.For example, the vice-president of the European commission, tania, made it clear that Europe needed a third industrial revolution.At the same time, some western European countries, led by Germany, have embarked on a plan to build a new energy system.After the third industrial revolution concept was introduced into China, and also recognized by top decision makers, for example, Mr Li had recommended rifkin's "the third industrial revolution," and called for the national development and reform commission and the state council development research center "close attention".
Of course, some domestic scholars think that the "third industrial revolution" is only a concept hype in developed countries, showing a rather dismissive expression.
In fact, new energy, biotechnology, information technology, new material technology of crossover and integration, will trigger a new round of technological revolution and industrial revolution has been widely accepted.Even now, the industry has been amazed by the differences with traditional industries.Is China's equipment industry ready
It should be said that every industrial revolution is a process of changing the human way of life.Change will also be inevitable for equipment that supports the industry.Although, it is not easy to accurately describe the shape and content of the change.So what does the third industrial revolution mean for China's equipment industry?
The third industrial revolution may seem remote, but it is not far off.Established as early as 2007, rifkin's concept of "third industrial revolution" won the affirmation of the European parliament, the corresponding plan has been in the commission departments and implemented in the 27 member states.The distance between China's equipment manufacturing and the third industrial revolution is clearly not so easily measured by the distance between China and the eu.
According to the development mechanism of the industrial revolution, every industrial revolution is accompanied by the development of the scientific and technological revolution. The technological revolution is the foundation of the industrial revolution and the necessary conditions.Since the 1940 s of the technological revolution is the atomic energy technology, space technology, represented by the application of electronic computer, including synthetic materials, molecular biology and genetic engineering and other high and new technology.The characteristic is that science and technology promote the development of productive forces, translate into the speed of direct productivity, close integration of science and technology, mutual promotion, and the mutual penetration of science and technology in various fields.At the same time, many new industrial sectors have been formed, such as polymer synthesis industry, nuclear industry, electronic computer industry, semiconductor industry, aerospace industry, biological engineering, laser optical fiber, etc.Especially the development of the electronic computer, control and automation technology, has replaced the part of the human brain work, greatly enhance the degree of automation of production, so as to improve the labor productivity, promote the rapid economic development in the major industrial countries.At present, it is these scientific and technological achievements that laid the foundation of the third industrial revolution in developed countries in Europe and the United States.
Look at the above content, compared to China's current status of the development of science and technology, including the equipment manufacturing industry, China's manufacturing industry, and the gap of the third industrial revolution is that, China and even the second industrial revolution the revolution of science and technology are not done yet.
The "energy revolution" portrayed by rifkin is utopian.But it's not funny.Because it is a big problem whether the domestic industry still has imagination.If we look at the freedom, property right, which form the basis of market entrepreneurial spirit, these three elements in the existence of different forms in different economies and the formation mechanism, have in the future competitive advantages and disadvantages of industrial society, provides a convincing basis?
One private entrepreneur once said, "competition between businesses is actually a system of competition."The same is true of companies.In that sense, if there is a willingness and impulse to reform, China's equipment industry still has a huge upside.